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Princeton physicist Gerard K. O'Neill's 1981 book, ''2081: A Hopeful View of the Human Future'' was an attempt to predict the technological and social state of humanity 100 years in the future. O'Neill's positive attitude towards both technology and human potential distinguished this book from gloomy predictions of a Malthusian catastrophe by contemporary scientists. Paul R. Ehrlich wrote in 1968 in ''The Population Bomb'', "in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death". The Club of Rome's 1972 ''Limits to Growth'' predicted a catastrophic end to the Industrial Revolution within 100 years from resource exhaustion and pollution. O'Neill's contrary view had two main components. First, he analyzed the previous attempts to predict the future of society—including many catastrophes that had not materialized. Second, he extrapolated historical trends under the assumption that the obstacles identified by other authors would be overcome by five technological "Drivers of Change". He extrapolated an average American family income in 2081 of $1 million/year. Two developments based on his own research were responsible for much of his optimism. In ''The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space'' O'Neill described solar power satellites that provide unlimited clean energy, making it far easier for humanity to reach and exceed present developed-world living standards. Overpopulation pressures would be relieved as billions of people eventually emigrate to colonies in free space. These colonies would offer an Earth-like environment but with vastly higher productivity for industry and agriculture. These colonies and satellites would be constructed from asteroid or lunar materials launched into the desired orbits cheaply by the mass drivers O'Neill's group developed. == Part I: The Art of Prophecy == Previous futurist authors he cites: * Edward Bellamy * J.D. Bernal * McGeorge Bundy * Arthur C. Clarke * George Darwin * J. B. S. Haldane * Robert Heilbroner * Aldous Huxley * Rudyard Kipling * Thomas More * George Orwell * George Thompson * Konstantin Tsiolkovski * Jules Verne * H.G. Wells * Eugene Zamiatin Arthur C. Clarke's ''Profiles of the Future'' included a long list of predictions, many of which O'Neill endorsed. Two of his maxims that O'Neill quotes 〔O'Neill 1981: 27〕 seem to sum up O'Neill's attitude, as well: * "anything that is theoretically possible will be achieved in practice, no matter what the technical difficulties, if it is desired greatly enough" * "We can never run out of energy or matter, but we can all too easily run out of brains." 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「2081: A Hopeful View of the Human Future」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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